Vehicle emission forecasts pinpoint CO2, NOx as problem pollutants

Emissions of carbon dioxide from the EC's vehicle fleet are unlikely to fall below 1990 levels by the end of the century, according to forecasts prepared for the European Commission.1 And a combination of best available technology and official vehicle inspection and maintenance standards will have to be implemented by the mid-1990s if emissions of most other major air pollutants are to be cut significantly.

The forecasts were compiled for the Commission by German and Greek consultants. Their original purpose was to show whether the EC as a whole could comply with the 1988 UN Economic Commission for Europe protocol on nitrogen oxides. This requires signatory countries to stabilise their NOx emissions at 1987 levels by 1994, with reductions to follow thereafter. Future trends in vehicle emissions, which accounted for 55% of the EC's tota

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